Price volatility continues to be a defining theme in the building materials industry in 2025. From lumber and steel to cement and roofing products, fluctuating costs are forcing distributors, suppliers, and contractors to re-evaluate how they forecast and manage pricing.
What’s different today is the growing role of data in navigating these changes. With access to more real-time market insights than ever before, businesses can now make more informed decisions about when to buy, how to price, and how to plan for what’s next.
Let’s break down how market data is being used to forecast material pricing this year — and what trends to expect across the most critical product categories.
Understanding the Drivers Behind Price Fluctuations
Before diving into forecasts, it’s important to recognize the key factors currently influencing material costs:
Raw material availability due to supply chain constraints
Labor shortages in manufacturing, logistics, and warehousing
Regional construction demand driven by housing and infrastructure projects
Transportation and fuel costs tied to global energy markets
Weather and environmental events disrupting production or delivery
Each of these forces affects pricing differently by material and region, making accurate forecasting more complex — and more necessary — than ever.
What Market Data Is Used for Forecasting?
To predict price movement, distributors and analysts typically monitor a blend of real-time and historical data, such as:
Commodity indexes for materials like lumber, steel, and copper
Housing starts, construction permits, and infrastructure funding reports
Import/export volumes and trade policy updates
Manufacturer lead times and capacity reports
Fuel and freight rate changes
Modern pricing models pull these data points into dashboards and forecasting tools to help teams plan ahead with confidence.
Pricing Trends for 2025: Material by Material
Here’s a closer look at how the market is shaping pricing expectations across major material categories:
- Lumber
Expected Trend: Moderate price increases likely through mid-year
What’s Driving It: Seasonal demand, tight supply in key regions, and ongoing trade complexities
Planning Insight: Buying during off-peak seasons or locking in pricing early can reduce cost exposure
- Steel and Rebar
Expected Trend: Holding steady at higher-than-average levels
What’s Driving It: High energy production costs and infrastructure-led demand across North America and Asia
Planning Insight: Prices may stay elevated, but large swings are less likely than in previous years
- Drywall and Insulation
Expected Trend: Steady increases throughout 2025
What’s Driving It: Labor challenges in manufacturing, energy costs, and rising multifamily housing construction
Planning Insight: Monitor monthly producer pricing and secure volume contracts when possible
- Cement and Concrete
Expected Trend: Varies significantly by location
What’s Driving It: Regional infrastructure activity and proximity to plants or distribution hubs
Planning Insight: Regional benchmarking is key — national averages can be misleading
- Roofing and Asphalt-Based Materials
Expected Trend: Moderate price hikes expected during peak construction seasons
What’s Driving It: Fluctuations in crude oil prices, transportation availability, and seasonal demand
Planning Insight: Plan roofing projects ahead of Q2–Q3 to avoid seasonal pricing spikes
How Suppliers and Distributors Are Adapting
To stay competitive in this uncertain pricing environment, more companies are turning to data-driven forecasting. Here are some of the strategies being used:
Dynamic procurement planning based on monthly trend data
Contract pricing agreements with manufacturers to lock in favorable rates
Inventory optimization to reduce overbuying during high-cost cycles
Data-integrated ERP systems to adjust pricing in real time across sales channels
With tighter margins and greater risk, timing is becoming just as important as cost when it comes to sourcing materials.
Conclusion
Market data has become an essential tool for anyone navigating building material pricing in 2025. By watching the trends, understanding the drivers, and using forecasting tools, suppliers and distributors can protect profitability and reduce risk — even when the market feels unpredictable.
The more proactive your planning, the better positioned you’ll be to serve customers reliably and competitively throughout the year.
