In the construction industry, timing is everything. As seasonal demand shifts and project pipelines fluctuate, distributors and suppliers face intense pressure to have the right products, in the right places, at the right time. Inaccurate forecasting can lead to costly overstocks, missed sales, or delays that jeopardize contractor relationships.
This case study explores how one regional building materials distributor leveraged data-driven demand forecasting to outpace the competition during the busy construction season—and realized tangible results in revenue, efficiency, and customer satisfaction.
The Challenge: A Seasonal Rollercoaster
Company Profile:
A mid-sized construction materials distributor with five locations across the Midwest, serving both residential and commercial builders.
The Pain Points:
Inventory mismatches leading to both stockouts and excess stock
High working capital tied up in slow-moving materials
Reactive procurement causing rushed (and expensive) replenishment
Missed opportunities due to lack of visibility into regional demand trends
Construction activity in the region fluctuated heavily with the seasons—and the company’s historical data wasn’t keeping up with the pace of change.
The Solution: Implementing Smart Forecasting Tools
The distributor partnered with a supply chain analytics provider to implement a seasonal demand forecasting system that incorporated:
✅ Historical sales data by region, SKU, and customer segment
✅ Weather pattern analysis to anticipate start-stop impacts
✅ Permit and housing start data as forward-looking indicators
✅ Collaboration with sales reps for field-level visibility
✅ Integration with the ERP system for real-time inventory alignment
The forecasting model was designed to refresh monthly—offering the agility to adjust for new inputs like project delays, labor constraints, or unexpected economic shifts.
Execution: A Data-Driven Pre-Season Playbook
With forecasting insights in hand, the distributor was able to:
Build seasonal inventory plans six months in advance
Stagger orders and delivery windows to avoid warehouse congestion
Align promotions and pricing with anticipated demand spikes
Inform staffing levels to support peak order volumes
Allocate products dynamically across locations based on regional forecast accuracy
The team also created a shared KPI dashboard for sales, purchasing, and operations leaders—keeping everyone aligned and proactive.
The Results: Winning the Construction Season
By the end of the season, the distributor saw measurable improvements across several key areas:
📈 15% increase in revenue during peak months compared to the previous year
📉 20% reduction in stockouts, improving customer satisfaction and retention
💰 18% decrease in inventory holding costs by reducing overstock of slow-moving SKUs
⏱️ Faster order fulfillment by aligning warehouse staffing and deliveries with true demand
📊 Stronger vendor relationships through better purchasing forecasts and volume planning
Perhaps most importantly, the forecasting system allowed the company to proactively adjust when weather patterns shifted, helping them stay agile and avoid the typical mid-season scramble.
Key Takeaways for Distributors and Suppliers
This success story highlights a few universal lessons:
Seasonal demand can be predictable—if you use the right signals.
Collaboration across teams amplifies forecasting accuracy.
Real-time visibility turns forecasts into action.
The cost of poor forecasting isn’t just financial—it’s reputational.
Forecasting demand in construction seasons is no longer a nice-to-have. For today’s top-performing distributors, it’s a competitive edge that drives efficiency, customer loyalty, and profitability.
Is Your Team Ready for the Next Construction Season?
Whether you’re managing five locations or fifty, your ability to forecast demand will define your success in the year ahead. If you’re still relying on spreadsheets and static reports, now is the time to invest in smarter forecasting tools.
Need help building a forecasting model for your construction business? I’d be happy to help you identify the right data, tools, and workflows to win your next peak season.
Let’s build your roadmap to better forecasting—and better results.
